2010 VMA Predictions

Trying to predict the VMA results is often fruitless because there is often no rhyme or reason why any particular video wins over another. Yet, here I am, valiantly going forward with this exercise. Oh well, at least we can all laugh at these tomorrow.

Video of the Year
Will Win: Lady GaGa & Beyoncé 'Telephone'
Should Win: Lady GaGa 'Bad Romance'

I mentioned this when I did my write-up of this year's nominees, but it bares repeating. Lady GaGa is going to win; there's very little doubt about that. She's as much of a lock as 'Single Ladies' was last year. While 'Bad Romance' is technically the better of her two nominated videos, I don't think voters will be able to resist the massive pull of the 'Telephone' video. GaGa + B + Tarantino-inspired dialogue + high concept + massive runtime + massive hype = a video which can't be ignored.

Male Video of the Year
Will Win: Usher featuring will.i.am 'OMG'
Should Win: Drake 'Find Your Love'

Trying to find a decent video amid this lackluster bunch is quite difficult. If Eminem wins here, he'll win Video of the Year since history has shown that his wins are correlated as such. I don't think Em will win the top award, so I'm down to B.o.B. and Usher. Both songs were massive hits, but this category has been considerably kinder to non-Video of the Year nominees, so I think Usher will pull ahead with the win. Drake not only has the best song of the bunch (slightly bested by 'In My Head') but his video is the only one that stirs me in any way besides revulsion.

Female Video of the Year
Will Win: Katy Perry featuring Snoop Dogg 'California Gurls'
Should Win: Lady GaGa 'Bad Romance'

I think this is down to Taylor Swift (in an attempt to make up for Kanyegate last year) and Katy Perry, who has somehow snagged herself three noms in a row in this category. She's already tied for 5th with a host of other legends (including Annie Lennox!) for the most noms in this category ever. 'California Gurls' was a massive hit, Katy Perry has never been hotter and she's technically "due." Bold choice, perhaps, but I think she'll nab it from Taylor.

Best New Artist
Will Win: Justin Bieber featuring Ludacris 'Baby'
Should Win: Nicki Minaj featuring Sean Garrett 'Massive Attack'

The Beebs has this one wrapped up, especially given the fact that people at home are the ones voting for the winners. And, you know what, I think he honestly deserves it. Who knows if he'll stick around in the future, but he's made a hell of an impression this past year and he's legitimately talented. If he wins, I won't be upset. However, I think the best in this category is Nicki Minaj, whose video manages to represent her as the out-of-this-world creature that she is.

Best Pop Video
Will Win: Ke$ha 'TiK ToK'
Should Win: Lady GaGa 'Bad Romance'

GaGa could surprise here, but I think Ke$ha and her ode to getting fucked up will take the prize.

Best Rock Video
Will Win: Paramore 'Ignorance'
Should Win: ?

Haven't had a chance to look through all the videos yet as I'm very weak when it comes to this genre. I think Paramore is still popular with the kids so I'm gonna go with them. No fucking clue though.

Best Hip-Hop Video
Will Win: Eminem 'Not Afraid'
Should Win: ?

Also pretty weak with this category so I'll update later. Eminem usually wins one just for appearing at this damn awards show so I expect him to pick this award up easily.

Best Dance Video
Will Win: Enrique Iglesias featuring Pitbull 'I Like It'
Should Win: Lady GaGa 'Bad Romance'

This comes down to a process of elimination. Cascada and David Guetta aren't too unfamiliar to win. GaGa might win, but I don't know if she's "dance" enough. Usher has a chance but I think Enrique, especially with the help of the Jersey Shore kids, will take this in the end.

Best Collaboration
Will Win: B.o.B. featuring Hayley Williams 'Airplanes'
Should Win: Beyoncé and Lady GaGa 'Video Phone (Extended Version)'

B.o.B. has to win somewhere, right? It pains me to type that but it's true. My pick is between Jay-Z & Alicia, who have the better song, and B & GaGa, who have the...I won't say better, but more interesting, videos. I went with 'Video Phone' because that video is nuts and I can still recall it vividly months after last watching it.