Dame James' Final Oscar Predictions

Wow, what a rollercoaster ride this Oscar season has been. I've gone from being giddy with anticipation to bored out of my mind so many times this year, I can't even keep track. Right now, I'm sort of in the middle- disappointed, but excited for the ceremony on Sunday (especially with that rumored, batshit crazy musical sequence produced by Baz Luhrmann and including Hugh Jackman, Anne Hathaway, Zac Efron, Vanessa Hudgens, Amanda Seyfried and Dominic Cooper) even if it ends up being a complete trainwreck. In all honesty, I'm ready to move on from 2008's disappointing crop of nominees and get going with 2009 (which I started yesterday). So, in order to get going with that, here are my final Oscar predictions.

Best Picture
Will Win: Sadly, it seems that it is written that Slumdog Millionaire will pick up this award.
Should Win: Since it's the only nominee that didn't prove a meh response from me or made me throw my hands in the air in exasperation, I'm going to go with Milk. Not a perfect film, but there's no way I can poo-poo on the nomination (especially in comparison with these others nominees).

Best Actor
Will Win: It's going to be a nailbiter between Rourke and Penn, but I'm going with Mickey Rourke because he has the comeback factor and he's been on his best behavior on the awards circuit, providing heartfelt speeches at every main precursor he's won at (Penn would have a better chance but he just won and I don't his competition is weak enough to warrant a second win this year)
Should Win: Mickey Rourke, although both Richard Jenkins and Penn are worthy in their own right.

Best Actress
Will Win: I hate to jinx her, but it seems like the stars have finally aligned for Kate Winslet.
Should Win: As of this point, Anne Hathaway, without a doubt, but I still need to catch up with Melissa Leo.

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Even Helen Keller would have predicted Heath Ledger.
Should Win: Obviously, Heath Ledger, but I wouldn't mind Josh Brolin, Robert Downey, Jr. or Michael Shannon picking this up in a major upset. This is quite literally the best Best Supporting Actor line up in a decade, at least.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: I keep hearing these rumors about a Viola Davis win here, yet I don't quite buy it. Penélope Cruz looks like a stronger bet and the one performance a lot of people can get behind.
Should Win: Penélope Cruz is the crazy, eccentric soul of Vicky Cristina Barcelona. She deserves five Oscars for giving this strong of a performance in such a weak film.

Best Director
Will Win: Danny Boyle has this in the bag.
Should Win: I guess Gus Van Sant although the direction is hardly the most interesting thing in Milk.

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: My guess is that Milk has to win somewhere and this category seems the most likely since it isn't up against Slumdog Millionaire.
Should Win: In Bruges is the most original, intricate and fascinating piece of writing this year.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire, for dashing any hopes of dramatic tension and being so "uplifting"
Should Win: None of these screenplays are remotely deserving of any attention, so I'll go with the least bad: The Reader

Best Cinematography
Will Win: Look at the pretty colors of Slumdog Millionaire!
Should Win: The Dark Knight is the best of the nominees, but there were at least three other movies with more interesting camerawork.

Best Editing
Will Win: Are you as bored with this Slumdog Millionaire sweep as I am?
Should Win: The integration of archival footage into the narrative in Milk was absolutely seamless.

Best Art Direction
Will Win: How can they vote against the ornate-ness of The Duchess' sets?
Should Win: The Dark Knight appropriately Gothic and dark sets were much more interesting than last year's winner Sweeney Todd.

Best Costume Design
Will Win: The Duchess is exactly the type of movie this category loves to honor. Boy do they love their corsets and hoop skirts.
Should Win: Nicole Kidman is the perfect life-size Barbie and always brings out the best in Catherine Martin (see: Moulin Rouge!). Australia is another perfect collaboration.

Best Makeup
Will Win: This just seems like the perfect award for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, no?
Should Win: The Dark Knight should win just for that inspired Joker makeup

Best Original Score
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire seems unstoppable here and, for the record, this is the one win I can live with. The music is quite lively and energetic.
Should Win: But WALL-E actually had an original score and not "Jai Ho" and "Paper Planes" repeated a few times over and over again and is literally quite brilliant.

Best Original Song
Will Win: I really don't see a split happening here between the two Slumdog songs, so I'll go with the more popular one "Jai Ho"
Should Win: "Jai Ho", but the Pussycat Dolls version, not the original. That one is epic genius.

Best Sound
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: WALL-E

Best Sound Editing
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: WALL-E

Best Visual Effects
Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Should Win: I guess Benjamin Button, although I applaud The Dark Knight for not relying on a gimmick and delivering good, old-fashioned effects.

Best Animated Film
Will Win: WALL-E
Should Win: WALL-E, but I wouldn't be too upset with a Kung Fu Panda win.

Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: Some think it's too obvious to win here since this category likes to throw surprises, but Waltz With Bashir seems like the Slumdog of this category at every award show.
Should Win: Haven't had the opportunity to see any of these nominees.

Best Documentary (Feature)
Will Win: Man on Wire is the critical darling of the documentary world
Should Win: Sadly, I haven't seen any of the nominees.

Best Documentary (Short)
Will Win: Smile Pinki is the perfect film for the Year of the Slumdog: a poor Indian slumchild with a cleft lip meets a social worker who gets her the surgery and is a "real world fairy tale" apparently told in a "vibrant style."
Should Win: N/A

Best Short (Animated)
Will Win: La Maison en petits cubes because they love picking random French stuff in this category
Should Win: I've only seen Presto, the short film that preceeded WALL-E, and that was quite worthy of this prize.

Best Short (Live Action)
Will Win: Spielzeugland is about the Holocaust. Game over.
Should Win: N/A

Completely Unnecessary Predictions on the Eve of the Oscar Nominations

I was asked earlier today if I was bored with this year's Oscar race and, for the first time since I started following it back in 2003, I had to admit that this year was boring the crap out of me. Most of the films and performances that I've seen that are the major contenders just haven't done anything for me. That's why I haven't talked about any race at all, offered my dumb two-cents about certain actor's chances, or updated my predictions since October. Now that the nominations are being read off tomorrow, I decided that I'll just suck it up and offer these half-assed opinions. Here we ago....

My ratings in bold (Films receive letter grades while performances are out of five stars)

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button C+
The Dark Knight B
Frost/Nixon D+
Milk B+
Slumdog Millionaire D+

Alternate: WALL-E
Oprah is Good to Me if They Go With: The Wrestler
No Chance in Hell: In Bruges

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler A-
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Alternate: Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Oprah is Good to Me if They Go With: Andrew Stanton, WALL-E
No Chance in Hell: Joachim Trier, Reprise (Martin McDonagh, In Bruges if you go by eligibility standards)

Best Actor
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon **
Sean Penn, Milk ****
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button *
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler *****

Alternate: Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Oprah is Good to Me if They Go With: Colin Farrell, In Bruges
No Chance in Hell: Josh Brolin, W.

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky ****
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt ****
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road ***

Alternate: Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Oprah is Good to Me if They Go With: Nicole Kidman, Australia
No Chance in Hell: Brittany Snow, Finding Amanda

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk ****
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder *****
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt ***
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight *****
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire **

Alternate: James Franco, Milk
Oprah is Good to Me if They Go With: Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
No Chance in Hell: Brad Pitt, Burn After Reading

Best Supporting Actress
Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona *****
Viola Davis, Doubt ***
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button **
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler *****
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Alternate: Amy Adams, Doubt
Oprah is Good to Me if They Go With: Ashley Tisdale, High School Musical 3: Senior Year
No Chance in Hell: Hiam Abbass, The Visitor

Oscar Predictions: October 2008

I know I haven't been updating my predictions as much as I'd like to, but, frankly, the Oscar race thus far has been boring me to tears. Best Picture, conceivably, has already been narrowed down to 10 or so films and half of them haven't even opened yet. I've been alternating the same 6 or 7 names for Best Actor since March and there haven't been any newcomers to the table (well, we did have RDJ and Viggo for awhile, but their movies got moved to 2009). There are very few viable Best Supporting Actor candidates at this point, which is leading me to just guess at this point. Even Best Actress is slightly snooze-worthy since only a couple potential nominees have opened. The only exciting category right now is Best Supporting Actress and that's mainly because of my campaign for La Tisdale, which is only getting stronger by the day. I'm hoping by the next time I update, there will be some major shakeups to make the race for the Oscar interesting again. Until then, here are my predictions:

Best Picture
Australia
The Dark Knight
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Nicole Kidman, Australia
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
James Franco, Milk
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ashley Tisdale, High School Musical 3: Senior Year

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Jonathan Demme, Rachel Getting Married
Baz Luhrmann, Australia
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Best Original Screenplay
Woody Allen, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Stuart Beattie, Richard Flanagan, Ronald Harwood, Baz Luhrmann, Australia
Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
Jenny Lumet, Rachel Getting Married

Best Adapted Screenplay
Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Justin Haythe, Revolutionary Road
Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley, Doubt

Oscar Predictions: August 2008

I haven't updated my original predictions on here since March. Yikes! A lot has changed since then so let's get started.

Best Picture
Australia
Changeling
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Revolutionary Road

Changeling probably has the most buzz right now (probably because it's the only one people have had the chance to see, even if it was only at Cannes), but just wait until the release of Luhrmann's Australia and hopefully that will be the film everyone will be talking about. Frost/Nixon and Milk are the obligatory biopic nominees (although Milk actually looks to like a fascinating film) and Revolutionary Road will have the undeniable PR power from the reteaming of Titanic lovebirds DiCaprio and Winslet.

Best Actor
Benicio Del Toro, Che
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road (or Body of Lies)
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Viggo Mortensen, The Road
Sean Penn, Milk

I'm already slightly bored with this category and am hoping for some new and unlikely contenders to emerge in the next couple of months. Del Toro has the Cannes win in his corner, but who knows if his film will even get released this year. Langella and Penn are the biopic subjects in two films I think will make the Top 5, so they're in as of right now. DiCaprio, just like in 2006, could go either way with his two films being released this year: will Oscar rather see him suffering in an unhappy marriage or looking for an Al Qadea leader in Jordan? Mortensen has a powerful Cormac McCarthy novel in his corner (I've only heard amazing things about the book...maybe I should pick it up soon) so that's enough for me at this early stage.

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Nicole Kidman, Australia
Julianne Moore, Blindness
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

I still haven't given up on Moore yet, no matter how unlikely her nomination is seeming at this point. Maybe she (and the film) gain some more buzz once it is released in September. Kidman, Streep and Winslet almost seem too perfect at this point, but until I find some other more likely contenders, they're staying in. Hathaway sneaks after the amazingness that was the first trailer for Rachel Getting Married. Will she get the attention she should have gotten three years ago for Brokeback Mountain?

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey, Jr., The Soloist
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Sheen, Frost/Nixon
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Road

At this point, Ledger is crushing the competition, so I'm curious to see if his buzz will last all the way until January or if it was subside as we move farther and farther away from The Dark Knight's dominance over our lives. Downey has gotten great reviews for both Iron Man and Tropic Thunder so I suspect that Oscar will top-off his spectacular comeback year with a nomination for his baitiest project, The Soloist. The film sounds completely shitty and almost designed solely for awards consdieration, but I doubt at this point that Oscar will go with both a Ben Stiller comedy and a comic book movie in its lineup. Brolin and Sheen still seem like good choices at this point so I'll stick with them. Oscar isn't as fond of male child actors as they are of females (I can only think of Jackie Cooper, Justin Henry and Haley Joel Osment getting nominations at such a young age, correct me if I'm wrong) so I'm a bit nervous for Smit-McPhee, but getting a nomination seems feasible at this point.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Samantha Morton, Synecdoche, New York
Ashley Tisdale, High School Musical 3: Senior Year

My craziest category as of right now. Cruz's film has just opened and she's been getting tons of press for her performance. Oscar has shown that they already love her so that's one less hurdle to overcome. Davis apparently has the "big" supporting role in Doubt; if the film is any good and she gets good press, add her name to the shortlist. I figure one of the multitude of supporting women in Synecdoche, New York has to get a nom and I'm just guessing Samantha Morton at this point. She can be fun when she wants to be, right? I don't know anything about Henson's role in Benjamin Button, but I think she's fabulous and if the film's big she could go all the way. I know it may seem like wishful thinking but wouldn't it be a wonderful world to live in if La Tisdale got an Oscar nomination for HSM3? Stupider (and sillier) films have been nominated and in the second one La Tisdale was so in tune with her character that she became the sole focal point of the movie.

Best Director
Clint Eastwood, Changeling
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Spike Lee, Miracle at St. Anna
Baz Luhrmann, Australia
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Eastwood, Luhrmann and Van Sant are carry overs from the Best Picture race and I'm guessing there will be two "lone director" spots this year. Fincher hasn't been embraced by Oscar yet, but I think this year will be his year. Speaking of never being embraced by Oscar, Lee, 20+ years into his career, hasn't received a single Best Director nomination. Hopefully Oscar will right this wrong and give him a nom for his WWII drama (a favorite subgenre of Oscar) Miracle at St. Anna.

Best Original Screenplay
Woody Allen, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Charlie Kaufman, Synecdoche, New York
Baz Luhrmann, Stuart Beattie, Australia
J. Michael Straczytnski, Changeling
Stanley Weiser, W.

Best Adapted Screenplay
William Monahan, Steve Zaillian, Body of Lies
Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
Joe Penhall, The Road
Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley, Doubt

Oscar Predictions: March 2008

It's that time of the year again. Last year's Oscars have been over for a month and it's time to start looking towards next year's Oscar ceremony. One year ago I tried doing year-in-advance predictions and it didn't work out so well. Here's hoping this year goes better!

Best Picture
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Milk

This looks like a good mix of Oscar's favorites: two biopics, one Broadway adaptation, one epic and, if they're looking to feed some auteur-lust, one by a director who they haven't fully embraced yet.

Best Actor
Benicio Del Toro, The Argentine
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Mark Ruffalo, Blindness

I really hope this doesn't turn into the obvious with Langella winning every award in sight for his Tony-award winning performance as Richard Nixon. That is so Dame Helen Mirren in 2006.

Best Actress
Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
Nicole Kidman, Australia
Julianne Moore, Blindness
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

I know this line up is almost too good to be true, with four of my favorite leading ladies all competing for the prize, but this is what looks the best right now. Depending on how the Academy is feeling, they might either go with Streep (who hasn't won since '82) or Winslet (who hasn't won on 5 nominations already).

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey, Jr., The Soloist
Ralph Fiennes, The Duchess
Danny Glover, Blindness
Michael Sheen, Frost/Nixon

Even if The Soloist is as sucky as it sounds, I really hope Downey gets the recognition he deserves. He is one of our finest actors around and another Oscar nomination (he has one already for Chaplin in '92) would be a sweet way to continue his comeback.

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Doubt
Anjelica Huston, Choke
Rinko Kikuchi, The Brothers Bloom
Patty McCormack, Frost/Nixon
Miranda Richardson, The Young Victoria

What a strange lineup here. I doubt most of this will pan-out (Huston, Kikuchi and McCormack are looking especially vulnerable) but this looked like the most fun. Just be grateful I didn't put down La Tisdale for High School Musical 3: Senior Year.

Best Director
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Spike Lee, Miracle at St. Anna
Baz Luhrmann, Australia
Fernando Meirelles, Blindness
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Can Spike Lee finally get his first nomination for Best Director? I hope so.

Best Original Screenplay
Woody Allen, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Stuart Beattie, Richard Flanagan, Ronald Harwood, Baz Luhrmann, Australia
Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Susannah Grant, The Soloist
Charlie Kaufman, Synecdoche, New York

This is looking pretty standard, although the Woody Allen picture can go either way.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Bret Easton Ellis, Nicholas Jarecki, The Informers
Justin Haythe, Revolutionary Road
Don McKellar, Blindness
William Monahan, Steve Zaillian, Body of Lies
John Patrick Shanley, Doubt

I don't think the Ellis nomination will happen, but he's one of my favorite writers and I thought I'd have a little fun. And you never know, it could happen.

Final Oscar Predictions

Tomorrow is my favorite day of the year besides Christmas and my birthday- Oscar Day! And this year I'm even more appreciative since we were this close to not even having a ceremony this year. After the Golden Globes fiasco, if the Oscar's hadn't gone on, this diva would have thrown a diva fit so enormous Beyonce would have been like, "Calm down!" So, in preparation for tomorrow, here are my predictions and thoughts on who could win.

Best Picture
Will Win: Say what you want about a potential Juno upset, I believe No Country For Old Men will triumph in the end. As much as the logic for a No Country-Blood split makes sense, therefore allowing the popular choice Juno to pull ahead, I doubt it will happen. There Will Be Blood is too highbrow and more people will vote for the more easily accessible No Country, therefore canceling the split.
Should Win: Atonement has gotten a bad rap for being nothing more than a pretty English costume drama. Let me say that I have seen many an English costume drama and none have moved me as much as this film. Plus, the film is less concerned with visual splendor and more concerned with the characters.

Best Actor
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis. Duh.
Should Win: In any other year I would probably say Day-Lewis, but I must admit I was slightly more impressed with Viggo Mortensen and his impenetrable Russian mobster.

Best Actress
Will Win: It's a tough race between Christie and Cotillard (with Page being the darkhorse), but I have to go with Julie Christie because of her veteran status and her major precursor wins (the Globe, SAG).
Should Win: Marion Cotillard, obviously. But that's not to say that Christie and Page aren't entirely worthy in their own rights (I haven't seen Linney yet).

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: I shouldn't even have to say it- Javier Bardem.
Should Win: Casey Affleck gave the greatest performance by a male in any category, but this category fraud is outrageous I'm tempted to just say screw it and go with Bardem. But he is that good, so I'll stay with him.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: This is the toughest race of the night with 4 of the women (sorry, Saoirse) still vying for that trophy. I'm going to go with Ruby Dee and the sentimental vote as the winner, but I'll be the first to admit that I could be entirely wrong.
Should Win: If you want to experience a performance of Biblical proportions, watch Tilda Swinton make a full-fledged woman out of a treacly character on paper.

Best Director
Will Win: Joel and Ethan Coen have been winning every director award in sight. You can't stop what's coming. (Ha, you see what I did there? I took the tag line from No Country For Old Men and used it to describe the Coen's impending win. You get it? It's funny, non? Good God, I'm clever)
Should Win: Joel and Ethan Coen. Sometimes it's just that easy.

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Diablo Cody has become the new indie darling and this seems like the most logical place Juno will win.
Should Win: Have I every mentioned how much I love Diablo Cody?

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: The No Country For Old Men steamroller is going full steam ahead, so look for Joel and Ethan Coen to win this one as well.
Should Win: Call me crazy, but I think Sarah Polley is the best. I didn't love the movie as a whole, but that screenplay was beautiful, intelligent and extremely well-written.

For the rest of these, I'm going to be upfront and admit that I'm talking out of my ass half the time. We'll see it goes.

Best Cinematography
Will Win: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly needs to win somewhere and here's just as good as any place. I wouldn't be surprised, however, if any of these picked up the prize.
Should Win: I was most impressed with The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford and that immaculate train robbing scene.

Best Editing
Will Win: The Bourne Ultimatum has already proved influential by the number of cheap imitations.
Should Win: The Bourne Ultimatum is Godard on crack and I loved every second of it.

Best Art Direction
Will Win: I'm going to go with There Will Be Blood simply because I haven't given it a win yet (besides Day-Lewis).
Should Win: I wasn't too terribly impressed with Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street or Atonement, so I will go with There Will Be Blood as well.

Best Costume Design
Will Win: Keira Knightley's green dress has already been named the best film costume in the history of cinema. Look for Atonement to easily snatch this prize.
Should Win: The costumes for Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street were one of the best parts of the movie.

Best Makeup
Will Win: La Vie en Rose. Anything but Norbit.
Should Win: La Vie en Rose

Best Original Score
Will Win: Atonement has been receiving lots of praise.
Should Win: Atonement has a score that's emotionally compelling and still subtle enough not to overpower the movie. It's the only film score I have on my iPod.

Best Original Song
Will Win: The songs from Enchanted will cancel each other out a la Dreamgirls allowing "Falling Slowly" to pick up the win.
Should Win: I'm torn between the two Amy Adams songs from Enchanted but everytime "Happy Working Song" comes on my iPod, this big goofy grin comes on my face that just won't go away. It's rather embarassing, but that means it's doing its job.

Best Sound
Will Win: Transformers
Should Win: I don't really have any opinion.

Best Sound Editing
Will Win: Transformers
Should Win: No opinion.

Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Transformers
Should Win: No opinion. These last three, in my opinion, are the most boring categories of the night.

Best Animated Film
Will Win: Ratatouille has won every animated prize under the sun, so this one is in the bag.
Should Win: I've only seen Ratatouille and I didn't care for it that much, so I can't really say until I see Persepolis.

Best Foreign-Language Film
Will Win: Oscar loves their Nazi dramas, so expect The Counterfeiters to clean up here.
Should Win: N/A

Best Documentary
Will Win: I think it's between No End in Sight and Sicko, but Michael Moore just won and Sicko didn't have the controversy and passionate following that his previous works have. So expect the critically praised No End in Sight to win this one.
Should Win: I thought Sicko was one of the finest films of the year, but it's the only one I've seen in this category so it's not really fair.

Best Documentary (Short)
Will Win: All of these sound baity as hell, but I'll go with the gays rallying around Freeheld.
Should Win: N/A

Best Short (Live Action)
Will Win: At Night features young adults with cancer and The Tonto Woman sounds like a condensed version of The Searchers. Either could take it, but I'll bet Oscar goes with the cancer patients in At Night.
Should Win: N/A

Best Short (Animated)
Will Win: Madame Tutli-Putli sounds the most interesting and fascinating.
Should Win: N/A

Number of Wins
No Country- 4
Transformers- 3
Atonement- 2
There Will Be Blood- 2
American Gangster- 1
Away From Her- 1
The Bourne Ultimatum- 1
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly- 1
Juno- 1
La Vie en Rose- 1
Once- 1

*Yeah, I know it's pretty bad when Transformers winds up with the second highest number of wins, but that's the way the cookie crumbles sometimes. Remember in 2005 when Brokeback tied with King Kong and the lesser Crash and Memoirs of a Geisha? Sometimes it works like that.

Oscar Predictions: Final

Best Picture
Atonement
Into the Wild
Michael Clayton
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Alternate: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
If there was a righteous God: Hairspray

Best Actor
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Alternate: Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
If there was a righteous God: Russell Crowe, 3:10 to Yuma

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Ellen Page, Juno

Alternate: Amy Adams, Enchanted
If there was a righteous God: Jodie Foster, The Brave One

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Alternate: Tommy Lee Jones, No Country For Old Men
If there was a righteous God: James Marsden, Enchanted or Hairspray

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Alternate: Catherine Keener, Into the Wild
If there was a righteous God: Romola Garai, Atonement

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Alternate: Joe Wright, Atonement
If there was a righteous God: David Fincher, Zodiac

Best Original Screenplay
Brad Bird, Ratatouille
Diablo Cody, Juno
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl

Alternate: Steven Knight, Eastern Promises
If there was a righteous God: Evan Goldberg, Seth Rogen, Superbad

Best Adapted Screenplay
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men
Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sean Penn, Into the Wild

Alternate: James Vanderbilt, Zodiac
If there was a righteous God: Leslie Dixon, Hairspray