Thursday, March 27, 2008

Oscar Predictions: March 2008

It's that time of the year again. Last year's Oscars have been over for a month and it's time to start looking towards next year's Oscar ceremony. One year ago I tried doing year-in-advance predictions and it didn't work out so well. Here's hoping this year goes better!

Best Picture

Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Milk


This looks like a good mix of Oscar's favorites: two biopics, one Broadway adaptation, one epic and, if they're looking to feed some auteur-lust, one by a director who they haven't fully embraced yet.

Best Actor
Benicio Del Toro, The Argentine
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Mark Ruffalo, Blindness

I really hope this doesn't turn into the obvious with Langella winning every award in sight for his Tony-award winning performance as Richard Nixon. That is so Dame Helen Mirren in 2006.

Best Actress
Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
Nicole Kidman, Australia
Julianne Moore, Blindness
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

I know this line up is almost too good to be true, with four of my favorite leading ladies all competing for the prize, but this is what looks the best right now. Depending on how the Academy is feeling, they might either go with Streep (who hasn't won since '82) or Winslet (who hasn't won on 5 nominations already).

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey, Jr., The Soloist
Ralph Fiennes, The Duchess
Danny Glover, Blindness
Michael Sheen, Frost/Nixon

Even if The Soloist is as sucky as it sounds, I really hope Downey gets the recognition he deserves. He is one of our finest actors around and another Oscar nomination (he has one already for Chaplin in '92) would be a sweet way to continue his comeback.

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Doubt
Anjelica Huston, Choke

Rinko Kikuchi, The Brothers Bloom
Patty McCormack, Frost/Nixon
Miranda Richardson, The Young Victoria

What a strange lineup here. I doubt most of this will pan-out (Huston, Kikuchi and McCormack are looking especially vulnerable) but this looked like the most fun. Just be grateful I didn't put down La Tisdale for High School Musical 3: Senior Year.

Best Director
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Spike Lee, Miracle at St. Anna
Baz Luhrmann, Australia
Fernando Meirelles, Blindness
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Can Spike Lee finally get his first nomination for Best Director? I hope so.

Best Original Screenplay
Woody Allen, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Stuart Beattie, Richard Flanagan, Ronald Harwood, Baz Luhrmann, Australia
Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Susannah Grant, The Soloist
Charlie Kaufman, Synecdoche, New York

This is looking pretty standard, although the Woody Allen picture can go either way.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Bret Easton Ellis, Nicholas Jarecki, The Informers
Justin Haythe, Revolutionary Road
Don McKellar, Blindness
William Monahan, Steve Zaillian, Body of Lies
John Patrick Shanley, Doubt

I don't think the Ellis nomination will happen, but he's one of my favorite writers and I thought I'd have a little fun. And you never know, it could happen.

3 comments:

Marcy said...

Oscar predictions I make an year ahead of time never work out so well. Like you, I also thought Reservation Road, Lions for Lambs, and Charlie Wilson's War were going to dominate the Oscars. Who knew No Country For Old Men was going to get more than an adapted screenplay nomination?

I'm predicting The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Australia, and Frost/Nixon as well. Instead of Doubt and Milk, I think Changeling (mainly love for Clint Eastwood) and Burn After Reading (The Coens! George Clooney!) are going to be major award season players. And if Spielberg can make The Trial of Chicago 7 in time for a 2008 release, it'll be a strong contender as well.

I don't want to count out Heath Ledger for a posthumous nomination for The Dark Knight. What I've seen from the trailer, the performance looks incredible, but would the nomination be for his acting or just for pure sentiment?

I haven't seen Chaplin, but I thought Robert Downey Jr. deserved some recognition for his great work in Zodiac last year.

Sorry for the long comment, but I love reading/making Oscar predictions!

Anonymous said...

My predictions:

Picture:
-Blindness
-Guerrilla
-Miracle at St. Anna
-The Reader
-Revolutionary Road
Alt: Changeling / Young Victoria / The curious case of Benjamin Button

Directing:
-Fernando Meirelles
-Ridley Scott
-Steven Soderbergh
-Spike Lee
-sam Mendes
Alt: Stephen Daldry / David Fincher / Clint Eastwood

Actor:
-Benicio Del Toro
-Leonardo DiCaprio
-Frank langella
-Sean Penn
Alt: Sam Rockwell / Jamie Foxx / Ralph Fiennes

Actress:
-Sally Hawkins
-Angelina Jolie
-Julianne Moore
-Meryl Streep
-Kate Winslet
Alt: Emily Blunt / Natalie Portman / Joan Chen

Supporting Actor:
-Jason butler Henry (Changeling)
-Josh Brolin
-Gael Garcia Bernal
-Heath Ledger
-Michael Sheen
Alt: Russell Crowe / Robert Downey Jr. / Jake Gyllenhaal

Supporting Actress:
-Kathy Bates
-Viola Davis
-Samantha Morton
-Franka Potente
-Kate Winslet
Alt: Carice van Houten / Amy Adams / Miranda Richardson

Original Screenplay:
-Changeling
-happy-go-lucky
-Milk
-Synedocke New York
-Wall E
Alt: Rocknrolla / The SOloist / Young victoria

Adapted Screenplay:
-Blindness
-The curious case of Benjamin Button
-Miracle at St Anna
-The Reader
-Revolutionary Road
Alt: Body of lies / brothers / Doubt

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