Last year, I took a look at what I thought would be potential nominees for Best Female Video at the VMAs. Surprisingly, I did quite well, picking four of the eventual nominees out of the top seven while surprise nominee Beyoncé for "Run the World (Girls)" was highlighted towards the bottom of the list (before the video had even premiered!). The other night I was thinking of that post and decided to try again to come up with what I thought this year's race might look like. Not sure if I can match my predictions last year, but let's give this a shot and see what happens.
The Top 5:
Katy Perry "Part of Me"
4 Noms/0 Wins
In Her Favor: After two years, six #1's and a 3D concert movie, the Teenage Dream Era is coming to an end. Can you think of a more fitting farewell to Katy's immense success than with another nomination here?
But: Nothing. She's in.
Rihanna "We Found Love"
2 Noms/1 Win
In Her Favor: Rihanna manages to pump out hit after hit, but "We Found Love" was her biggest song since "Umbrella." Plus, "We Found Love" is without a doubt her best video to date.
But: Only two nominations? As big of a star as Rihanna should have more.
Kelly Clarkson "What Doesn't Kill You (Stronger)"
3 Noms/2 Wins
In Her Favor: Sometimes all it takes is a #1 hit like this to remind everyone why we fell in love with Kelly in the first place. Girlfriend already has two wins so they clearly love her.
But: Is she "hip" enough for MTV in these days of Katy Perry and Teen Wolf?
Nicki Minaj "Starships"
1 Nom/0 Wins
In Her Favor: Having just notched its 20th week in the Top 10, the song has proven to have massive staying power.
But: Does anybody remember the video? Like, at all?
Lana Del Rey "National Anthem"
In Her Favor: This is my No Guts, No Glory pick. This line-up is in clear need of a Critical Darling. Although Lana is not quite as huge as Adele, last year's Darling, is, she does have a rabid fanbase who were salivating over her material even before her Born to Die album came out. She seems like a long shot, but every once in awhile this category does embrace lesser-known artists with great, buzzworthy videos.
But: This only happens every once in awhile. As odd as it sounds, she probably has a better shot in the Video of the Year category, which is much more open to artistic videos like "National Anthem."
In the Running:
Lady Gaga "Marry the Night"
4 Noms/2 Wins
In Her Favor: I know I sound crazy for betting against Gaga, considering her rabid fanbase who are only out-crazied by the Beliebers. And this video was everything those fanatics could have possibly wanted from an artiste like Lady Gaga.
But: Come on. For an artist who has made a living off turning everything about her persona into pretentious bullshit, this fourteen minute, ultra serious video exploring the inner torment of Gaga The Person was Pretentious Bullshit.
Carly Rae Jepsen "Call Me Maybe"
In Her Favor: A zeitgeist hit...
But: ...That's only mildly less trashy than Rebecca Black's "Friday." More likely than not, expect her to pop up with One Direction in the Best New Artist category.
Madonna "Give Me All Your Luvin'" OR "Girl Gone Wild"
12 Noms/4 Wins
In Her Favor: In very different ways, these two videos have proven why Madonna is still the undisputed Queen of the Music Video.
But: The Gays have completely turned on her. If they don't care, why will MTV?
Britney Spears "I Wanna Go" OR "Criminal"
5 Noms/1 Win
In Her Favor: "I Wanna Go" and "Criminal" were both far better videos than the previous Femme Fatale singles produced.
But: I read somewhere that "I Wanna Go" debuted on the cutoff date for last year's VMAs. I refuse to believe this as that masterpiece received zero nominations while the mediocre "Till The World Ends" nabbed her a Best Pop Video trophy. And if she couldn't get a Best Female Video nomination with that massive track, I doubt either of these songs has the legs to get her there this year.
Jessie J "Domino"
In Her Favor: For better or worse, her loud, painted on jumpsuits were certainly eye-catching in this video.
But: Despite the fact that this song was a hit in the U.S., I still don't feel like she's that big over here. Do you ever hear people talking about her (well, I mean, despite complaining about her singing/wailing)?
Never Say Never:
Demi Lovato "Give Your Heart a Break"
In Her Favor: With her upcoming X-Factor gig, people are finally taking notice and trying to make her happen.
But: I don't think it's her moment yet. We'll see where she's at after X-Factor debuts this fall.
Cher Lloyd "Want U Back"
In Her Favor: Against all odds, it appears that she's crossing over into America.
But: She's only just hit the Top 40 here. And if Carly Rae doesn't make it, Cher certainly won't.
Dev "In the Dark"
In Her Favor: An ubiquitous singer with her own big hit.
But: The song is nearly a year old; has her Moment passed already?